New policy implementation is limited by energy-intensive industries

On September 7, 2005, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presided over the State Council executive meeting to discuss and pass the "Special Plan for the Development of Aluminum Industry" (hereinafter referred to as "Planning") and "Aluminum Industry Development Policy" (hereinafter referred to as "Policy"). . However, the industrial policy after the adoption of the two documents has been delayed.


It was learned from the National Development and Reform Commission that the "Plan" and "Policy" were officially released on October 11. The industrial policy that is about to emerge has clearly stated that the aluminum industry, as a high-power consumption industry, should be developed in line with the national energy situation and must be placed under the state's macroeconomic regulation. Therefore, in the future, China will “strictly enter the standards, strictly adhere to the new electrolytic aluminum project, restrict existing enterprises from blindly expanding production capacity; strictly control the construction of alumina projects to ensure the orderly development of the alumina industry”.

The industry generally believes that the upcoming aluminum industry industrial development policy will be another clear signal that China is determined to leapfrog the development stage of heavy chemical industry based on high energy consumption. The previously issued "Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Coal Industry" and the steel industry policy have clearly restricted foreign investment in these two industries; the steel industry has even stopped the pace of expansion of production capacity, and the regulations are different in principle, allowing new establishments. Steel mill. This move is in line with the aluminum industry policy.

Electrolytic aluminum outlet door closed
According to the aluminum industry policy text learned by Caijing, in terms of increments, strict restrictions will be imposed on the high-energy electrolytic aluminum industry and its upstream bauxite mining. In addition, in the future, electrolytic aluminum will be contracted from domestic and international markets to the domestic market to meet domestic demand.

In fact, this influence has emerged in a series of specific regulatory policies. On January 1 this year, the state canceled the export tax rebate for electrolytic aluminum and levied a 5% export tax, causing most electrolytic aluminum enterprises to reduce the export amount. In the first half of this year, 90% of export growth relied on processing trade.

Furthermore, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued a notice announcing that from August 22 this year, alumina (including aluminum ore) and ferroalloy minerals will be included in the prohibition category of processing trade, and the state will no longer approve new processing trade contracts; The processed manuals that have been issued can still be used. As a result, another gate of the electrolytic aluminum outlet was closed.

There are rumors that after the introduction of the aluminum industry policy, the NDRC will consider a 20% export tax on electrolytic aluminum exports – this is equivalent to completely closing the door to electrolytic aluminum exports.

On the one hand, strict control of the new capacity of electrolytic aluminum and its raw material alumina; on the one hand, closing the electrolytic aluminum export market, the electrolytic aluminum industry is facing an unprecedented "policy winter."

Experts analyzed that the fundamental reason for the state to impose tyranny on the electrolytic aluminum industry is that China does not actually have the conditions to develop high-energy-consuming industries. Since 2000, the international market for electrolytic aluminum has warmed up, and the international price advantage of China's electrolytic aluminum products has attracted a large number of enterprises to join the expansion frenzy of the electrolytic aluminum industry.

The main cost of electrolytic aluminum comes from electricity prices. According to Tao Dong, chief economist of Credit Suisse First Boston Asia, China's low electricity prices and oil prices have created a platform for China's high-energy-consuming industries; but low prices are built on a distorted pricing mechanism that does not reflect The true state of China's energy. Specific to the aluminum industry, China's bauxite reserves are not rich, according to current estimates, can only maintain 13 years of mining.

Under this circumstance, it is inevitable that the state will shift from encouraging to restricting heavy-duty industries with high energy consumption and high pollution. In the early days of reform and opening up, steel and aluminum were used as basic raw materials, which were directly linked to the growth of GDP. However, in recent years, energy supply has continued to be tight and the environment has deteriorated, which has led policymakers to gradually consider the stage of development of heavy industry and seek to save environmentally friendly development routes.

The industry generally understands the industrial policy that limits the growth of the aluminum industry, but there are also various concerns.

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