After the import policy of waste plastics was banned, regenerative pets received wider attention and a series of changes took place in the market situation. Large-scale cleaning plants have increased, and the right to speak in downstream pricing has weakened. The overall supply of recycled bottles is reduced, and the gap needs to be filled. The linkage with new materials is enhanced, and the market mentality is complex and changeable. Change one: non-rise and decline, market volatility is frequent During the period of 2013-2015, the average price of recycled pets was declining year by year, and the market volatility was not frequent, and the period of stalemate was relatively long. Taking 2013 as an example, the price gap between regenerated pets during the year was only 700 yuan/ton. After June, the market fell into a long-term consolidation situation, and the price fluctuated within 100 yuan. On the contrary, during the period of 2016-2018, the average price of recycled pets is increasing year by year, and market fluctuations are more frequent. Especially after the ban, the market activity has increased rapidly, and the consolidation cycle is quite short, showing a situation of non-rise and decline. There is a lack of regulation in the recycling industry. Recycling pets are mostly small-scale enterprises in the family workshop, and more than 80% are used to produce recycled chemical fiber. Therefore, all along, recycled pets are the buyer's market, and the larger downstream renewable chemical fiber pricing rights are heavier. The sluggish chemical fiber market during the period of 2013-2015 is the most critical factor leading to poor regenerative pet market. In recent years, as a recycling industry, recycled polyester has received more support, and a number of large-scale production enterprises such as Gezhouba Huanjia, Suzhou Qianlong, Zhejiang Huafei and Longfu Huaneng have emerged. In addition, after the import policy of waste plastics was banned, the supply pattern of recycled pets changed greatly, and supply exceeded demand became the main theme of the market. From the demand-driven market to the supply, demand, policy, and related products, the market trend can be controlled. The current market for recycled pets is complex and changeable, and the pricing power of downstream recycled chemical fiber is significantly weakened. Change 2: Import volume shrinks to historical lows Pet scrap and scrap imports have shrunk to a low point, while other primary forms of polyethylene terephthalate imports have increased significantly year-on-year. From January to March 2018, pet waste scraps and scraps totaled 3353.44 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 99.53%. In 2018, industrial waste plastics are banned from import at the end of the year. The latest 11th batch of restricted import declarations do not contain pet waste and scrap. This year, pet waste and scrap imports will be very limited, and imports will be completely banned in 2019. Subsequent regeneration of pet imports can only and only regenerate particles. Other primary shapes of polyethylene terephthalate comprise virgin polyester chips and recycled polyester granules. From January to March 2018, imports of other primary forms of polyethylene terephthalate imported a total of 75,100 tons, an increase of 75.14%. After high temperature treatment, the viscosity of the recycled particles is generally low, mostly about 0.5, and the impurities cannot be cleaned again, and the color is yellow. Recycled fiber and two-dimensional hollow manufacturers only choose particle-assisted production, while high-end reclaimed filaments and recycled hollow manufacturers are almost useless. However, due to the obvious domestic supply gap, a large number of waste bottles in foreign countries need to be treated, and the industrial transfer of domestic recycling enterprises has promoted the rapid development of the recycled pellet market. On the whole, the waste material imports are few, the particles are limited by the quality and the scope of application is also difficult to blow out. In 2018, the amount of recycled pet imports will drop to an all-time low. Change 3: The correlation between new and old materials has increased significantly Since 2014, the correlation coefficient between recycled pet and new polyester chips has increased year by year. In 2018, the correlation coefficient between the two reached a high of 0.84. In fact, after the international oil price plummeted in 2014, the textile industry's prosperity was low, and the downstream demand for new and old materials was not much, and the correlation coefficient between recycled products and virgin polyester declined. Recycled chemical fiber with a significant excess capacity is more vulnerable. The market is showing that it is difficult to keep up with the price increase of the original price, while the price of recycled products of the original product is likely to fall. In this context, the downstream-dominated recycled pet has a lower correlation with the new polyester chips. After the ban on 2017, the price of recycled products continued to rise, approaching the original polyester products, and the market linkage was gradually improved. In particular, the current price difference between recycled bottle flakes and polyester chips is kept at a low level of 200-300 yuan/ton. The downstream recycled chemical fiber market is in short supply, and some manufacturers purchase new material polyester chips. Due to the change in the purchasing tendency of chemical fiber plants, the impact of the rise and fall of new polyester chips on recycled bottle flakes has been increasing, and the correlation between the two has risen to a high level. Based on the major changes in the recycled pet market, we look at the industry's follow-up focus. First of all, the competition of raw materials is also the focus of domestic bottle recycling. At the beginning of the year, Longfuhuan can become a demonstration base for the construction of renewable resources recycling system in Shandong, which indicates that the establishment of waste plastic recycling system will be accelerated, and the renewable resource industry will gradually develop towards agglomeration and specialization. Second, the recycling of waste polyester textiles. As an important part of filling the shortage of recycled bottle flakes, the amount of waste textiles is huge. Once the recycling system and technological level have made substantial progress, its development space is broad. Once again, the capacity of the recycled polyester industry has shifted and changed. Domestic renewable pets are in short supply, although they face certain challenges. Some downstream reclaimed chemical fiber manufacturers still choose to go out and turn to Southeast Asia with low cost and abundant raw materials. The subsequent development of such chemical fiber plants and the quantity of imported chemical fiber deserve continuous attention.
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About regenerative PET, you must understand these changes
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