The “13th Five-Year Plan” economic growth rate is pending. The mainstream experts predict an average annual rate of 6.5%.

Summary "Thirteen Five" economic growth in the end as the number of suitable? The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned from the members of the "13th Five-Year" National Development Planning Expert Committee, "13th Five-Year...
How much is the “13th Five-Year Plan” economic growth rate?
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned from the members of the 13th Five-Year National Development Planning Expert Committee that the entire 13th Five-Year Plan will take at least two years to complete, and is currently in the second phase, according to the arrangement in October this year. Formally drafted.
According to the forecast data of some experts or their institutions in the list of 55 “13th Five-Year” National Development Planning Expert Committees announced by the National Development and Reform Commission, the 6.5% growth target is a more mainstream figure.
On the other hand, from the completion of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” target, which is regarded as the starting line, to the goal of the 2020 comprehensive well-off construction target, which is regarded as the finish line, the “13th Five-Year” GDP increase can also be observed. The range of speed.
Hu Angang, a member of the 13th Five-Year Plan Committee and the director of the National Studies Institute of Tsinghua University, predicted that the GDP growth rate of the 13th Five-Year Plan is between 6.6% and 7.4%, but he also believes that even the average annual growth rate is The 6.6% bottom line can also achieve the goal of “the GDP will double from 2010” proposed by the 18th National Congress.

"Twelfth Five-Year" Progress: Education, Science and Technology Indicators to Be Worked
According to the data available in 2011-2014, Tsinghua University's National Institute of Science and Technology has completed the level of progress in the 28 major indicators including economic development, science and technology education, resources and environment, and people's life. Four echelons, such as compliance, near completion, good progress, and lag.
Overall, from the four categories in which the completion of the 28 indicators is completed, economic development, people's lives, etc. have been completed well, and the resources and environment are progressing a little. However, in the field of science and technology education, especially in terms of science and technology investment, it is still insufficient. .
According to statistics from the 21st Century Business Herald, by 2014, a total of 12 indicators met the standards in advance, and the first echelon accounted for about 43% of the total.
In terms of specific categories, in the first category, the three indicators of “GDP”, “value-added value of service industry” and “urbanization rate” in economic development have all been exceeded, and the number of targets has reached 100%, such as before In the past four years, the actual annual growth rate of China's GDP has reached 8.0%, far exceeding the target of 7%.
In the second category, the “quantity of invention patents per 10,000 population” in science and technology education reached the standard in advance, and the number of indicators reached 25%. In the third category, among the 12 sub-indices of the resource environment, four indicators including “forest reserves” have reached the target, accounting for about 33%. In the fourth category, among the nine sub-indexes of people's lives, five indicators such as “new urban employment” have reached the target, accounting for about 55%, such as “three basic medical insurance participation rates in urban and rural areas” in 2013. In the past year and a half, it has reached the standard, and the progress of the super-sequence is completed in one and a half years.
In addition, among the 16 indicators that have not fully met the standards in the previous four years, the four resource and environment subdivision indicators including “forest cover rate” are approaching completion, and the second echelon accounts for about 14%. For example, according to the results of the 8th National Forest Inventory, the value reached 21.63% in 2013, only 0.03% from the scheduled growth rate.
At the same time, the third echelon is in good progress, a total of 10 sub-indexes, accounting for about 36%. For example, in terms of “reduced energy consumption per unit of GDP”, the national energy consumption per unit of GDP in the first four years of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” has fallen by 13.4%, and 82.5% of the progress of the five-year target has been completed, which has caught up with the time schedule. Claim.
However, there are still two indicators, including “reports for research and experimental development expenditures as a share of GDP”, which are slightly behind, accounting for about 7%. For example, as of the end of 2014, the value was 2.09%, and the cumulative growth rate was 0.33%, which was 0.12 percentage points lower than the 2015 target.
In fact, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the investment intensity of this research and experimental development has not reached the expected level. This indicates that in the field of science and technology education investment and resources and environment with weak progress, future policies may continue to increase.

"13th Five-Year" average annual growth of 6.5% can achieve doubling target
According to the progress of the 13th Five-Year National Development Planning Expert Committee, the entire formulation process of the 13th Five-Year Plan will take at least two years. It is currently in the second phase and will be formally drafted in October this year.
The completion of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” indicator is the basis for determining the coefficient of certain indicators in the “13th Five-Year Plan”. However, in the most concerned GDP growth rate, due to the downward pressure on the domestic economy and the uncertainty of the international economic recovery, China's second largest economy in the world is more expecting its own growth rate.
According to the "two doubling" goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way: if we do not consider the price and other factors, by 2020, the GDP will reach 803.026 billion yuan; the per capita income of urban and rural areas will reach 38218 yuan and 11838 yuan respectively in 2020, corresponding to an average annual growth of 40151.3. 100 million yuan, 1910.9 yuan, 591.9 yuan.
Based on 2010, in the four years before the comprehensive construction of a well-off society, the above three data increased to 636.463 billion yuan, 28,844 yuan, and 9,982 yuan respectively. The average annual value added in four years is far above the average level, especially in rural residents. Per capita net income is on this indicator.
The over-expectation of the overall target process in previous years has left more room for manoeuvre for the following years. Although Hu Angang, a member of the 13th Five-Year National Development Planning Expert Committee and director of the National Studies Institute of Tsinghua University, predicted that the GDP growth rate of the 13th Five-Year Plan is between 6.6% and 7.4%, he also believes that even The average annual growth rate of 6.6% of the bottom line can also achieve the goal of "the GDP will double from 2010" proposed by the 18th National Congress.
Wang Tongsan, one of the members of the 13th Five-Year Plan and a former director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” and the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” are given for the GDP growth target. A floating range of 2 percentage points, but this “13th Five-Year Plan” may be different from the past, reducing the floating range to 0.5 percentage points.
According to the forecast data of some experts or their institutions in the list of 55 “13th Five-Year” National Development Planning Expert Committees announced by the National Development and Reform Commission, 6.5% is a more mainstream figure, most experts and institutions still Tend to this bottom line.
Among the 11 “13th Five-Year” planning experts and their organizations that publicly publish forecast data, 6.2% only accounted for 2 seats; 7% and around 4 seats; 6.5% and around accounted for 5 seats.

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