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landslide
Industry enters low profit period
Recently, the "Economic Information Daily" reporter visited Changzhou Tianhe, Zhongdian Photovoltaic, Poly GCL and other leading enterprises in the photovoltaic industry chain found that with the maturity of the industry, the photovoltaic industry retains rapid expansion of market capacity and technical routes. It has not yet stabilized the characteristics of emerging industries, but has shown a “traditional†trend of low-margin returns and low-cost competition.
Gao Jifan, chairman of Changzhou Tianhe Company, said that before the end of 2009, the net profit margin of all parts of the PV industry chain remained above 25%, and the polysilicon industry as a raw material had a profit of more than 70%. Compared with the end of 2009, the price of PV modules currently used as terminal products has fallen by more than 66%, while production costs have only dropped by 53%.
Dr. Wang Shijiang from the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance Secretariat said that from the third quarter of 2011, under the background of a serious overcapacity of global PV production capacity, China's small and medium-sized PV companies have provoked price wars and eventually formed a loss-making sales industry at the end of 2012. Bad fruit. “At the end of 2012, China’s PV module cost was about US$0.7/W, and when it sold a watt component, the company would lose 10 cents.â€
Gao Jifan said, “In 2013, the cost of PV modules dropped to US$0.65/W, while the sales price in the first half of the year rose back to US$0.7/W. It remained basically stable in the second half of the year. In this case, in the second half of 2013, PV The silicon wafers, battery cells, components and other links in the industrial chain have turned losses into profits, while the polysilicon links at the raw materials end are still at a loss due to low-priced dumping by products from the US, South Korea, and the European Union."
Lu Tingxiu, chairman of China Light and Power, believes that the maturity of the industry is becoming more and more fundamental, which is the root cause of the “traditional†characteristics of the photovoltaic industry entering low-profit returns and low-cost competition. The maturity of the industry is mainly manifested in two aspects: First, the equipment used in the production line of the photovoltaic industry has been “commonizedâ€. Before 2008, the equipment to be selected for a production line is still “commercial secretâ€, but now the photovoltaic production equipment has “spend moneyâ€. Can buy"; Second, the PV industry chain has been highly "matched" between the various links, and there have been overcapacity.
Under this circumstance, the "destiny" of photovoltaic enterprises presents two hot days. On the eve of the Spring Festival, a number of PV industry listed companies such as Aerospace Electromechanical, Yijing Optoelectronics, Hairun Photovoltaic, and Tianwei Baobian announced the 2013 Annual Results Express. Aerospace Electromechanical and Yijing Optoelectronics successfully turned losses into profits in the “anti-marketâ€, including aerospace electromechanical loss from RMB 890 million in 2012 to net profit of RMB 1.41 billion. Hareon Solar is just the opposite, and the previous profit has turned into a loss. What is even more amazing is that Tianwei Baobian, with a pre-loss transcript of 5.2 billion yuan in 2013, has become the loss of the “single dollar†in the listed company.
“The maturity of the industry has increased, and the “access threshold†of the photovoltaic industry has disappeared, and enterprises have been able to achieve full competition. Under this circumstance, the capital of other industries will come together, changing the relationship between supply and demand until the profitability of the photovoltaic industry. It is roughly the same as other manufacturing industries.†Wang Shijiang analyzed, “From now on, the photovoltaic industry will permanently bid farewell to the high-profit era and return to the average level of traditional manufacturing.â€
Trapped
High debt ratio
Recently, the "Economic Information Daily" reporter visited a number of PV companies in Jiangsu Province and found that the debt ratio of the whole industry is high, and a large part of the company's low-margin profits are swallowed up by loan interest, becoming a "wage earner" of the bank. Moreover, commercial banks are still cautious about PV business loans, and most private PV companies are still suffering from financing bottlenecks.
Xu Ruilin, secretary general of the Jiangsu Photovoltaic Association, pointed out the root cause of the high debt of the photovoltaic industry. At the beginning of 2010, China formed an investment boom in the photovoltaic downstream industries such as silicon wafers, cell sheets and modules, and bank loans became the main source of funds. Unfortunately, in the first half of 2011, after the expansion of production capacity was put into production, the whole industry quickly fell into a vicious price war, and in 2012 triggered the “double opposition†of the United States and the European Union.
“After the expansion of production capacity of the photovoltaic industry, it took a few days to make a good loss, and it entered a loss of five consecutive quarters. In this case, in order to maintain the cash flow, only the old debts will not be renewed, and the debt burden will be more "The heavier." Xu Ruilin said, "At the end of 2013, the debt ratio of leading enterprises in the industry is between 80% and 85%, and individual enterprises have reached more than 90%."
According to the person in charge of a number of leading PV companies, the high cost of finance is another important reason for the current PV companies to become bank wage earners. "The vast majority of loans issued by banks to enterprises are less than one year. Enterprises can only use a lot of loans from different banks to repay loans, and frequently repay loans due to repay loans. Some loans rely on guarantee companies. Guarantees can be obtained, not only for the 1.5% to 2% guarantee fee, but also for the deposit, the state-owned guarantee company is 10% of the loan amount, and some private guarantee companies are up to 20%.†Lu Tingxiu said.
Shu Hua, president of GCL-Poly, believes that the photovoltaic industry and banks have now entered a vicious circle. From continuous losses to low-margin long-term, the huge loans formed in the previous capacity expansion are difficult to pay off in the short term, and the industry reduces the asset-liability ratio. The pace is forced to slow down, and can only continue to renew loans, and bear the loan interest rate for a long time. Loan interest rates draw a large amount of profits from the industry, affecting the benign development of the industry and further weakening the ability to repay loans.
“The photovoltaic industry has not only become a bank wager, but also has been tempered by the interest rate.†The more leading companies in the industry, the more pressure from debt. The most typical is Wuxi, which has been bankrupted and reorganized. Suntech, the brand effect and product performance of its PV modules are firmly in the forefront of domestic enterprises, but they are forced to "learn" because of the chain of capital chain." Wang Shijiang said.
It is understood that PV companies that have been lending for nearly one year since June 2013 have begun to receive bank credits sporadically. However, commercial banks are still cautious about applying for loans from PV companies. 60% of the loans in this industry are from the China Development Bank, and they can only benefit a small number of key enterprises.
Xu Ruilin suggested that banks can try to package loans into financial products and convert them into equity options, and then redeem the options when the company develops well.
Bump
The transformation of private enterprises encounters "glass door"
In the interview, the "Economic Information Daily" reporter found that the leading enterprises in the photovoltaic industry are surging to become the enthusiasm of photovoltaic power station operators, hoping to undertake the country's photovoltaic power generation subsidies to support the sustainable development of the manufacturing sector. However, due to the difficulties in capital investment and long-term investment return period, the non-equal distribution of “roads†has led to the “glass door†of private PV companies in the transition.
It is understood that on the one hand, whether it is a centralized ground photovoltaic power station or a distributed rooftop photovoltaic power station, the country's on-grid tariff subsidies have given reasonable profit margins to PV power plant operators. On the other hand, in the context of overcapacity of PV modules, PV manufacturers face insufficient bargaining power of PV power plant operators, and it has become an effective choice for PV power plant operators to become profitable by manufacturing enterprises.
Wang Shijiang introduced that the country's large-scale launch of domestic photovoltaic power generation, the main purpose is to promote the sustainable development of photovoltaic manufacturing industry with domestic market demand. “The practice in 2013 exposed the flaws: the “roads and strips†of the Development and Reform Commission for the construction of photovoltaic power plants were mostly seized by central enterprises such as China Power Investment Corporation and China Guodian, and the private PV companies that dominated the manufacturing industry were ultimately low-priced. The bidding method sold PV modules to these central enterprises. This caused the country to invest heavily in photovoltaic power generation subsidies, and most of them eventually flowed into the pockets of central enterprises, and only a small part really benefited the photovoltaic manufacturing industry."
Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that the construction cost of photovoltaic power plants is about 10 yuan per watt, the operation period is more than 20 years, and the cost recovery period is about 8 to 10 years. This means that 100 megawatts of photovoltaic power plants, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, take large-scale ground-based photovoltaic power plants as an example, hundreds of megawatts. "High investment and slow return make the financing advantages of central enterprises fully reflected in the construction of photovoltaic power plants, while private PV companies, which are the protagonists of photovoltaic manufacturing, are often powerless."
In addition, the reporter learned that the construction of photovoltaic power plants requires the “roads†of the Development and Reform Commission and the grid companies to solve the power grid connection. In these two aspects, central enterprises also occupy an innate advantage. Under this circumstance, some private PV companies have to choose to cooperate with central enterprises and local enterprises in order to obtain “roadsâ€.
"Photovoltaic industry is an industry that fully realizes international competition. Private enterprises can become the protagonists because they have flexible systems and mechanisms that are not available to central enterprises. Since 2010, many domestic central enterprises have tried to enter the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, but In the market competition, it has repeatedly lost private enterprises." Wang Shijiang believes that in order to better support the country's photovoltaic power generation subsidies for the sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry, one way is to try to coordinate the five major power generation groups and other central enterprises and private photovoltaic enterprises by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Co-funding and setting up a photovoltaic power station construction and operation company with mixed ownership, another way is to encourage banks and other financial departments to provide private enterprises with the transformation of photovoltaic power plants into photovoltaic power station construction, provide credit support for operators, and eliminate private enterprises in financing, "Injustice in other aspects."
China's photovoltaics get rid of difficulties and enter the "marathon" mode
In 2013, the photovoltaic industry continued to waver. Although the risks were repeated, but under the support of the national policy of launching domestic applications, the overall turnaround was still achieved. However, in the case of the industry's low profit period, high debt ratio, and the “three big mountains†pressure of the development of photovoltaic power plants in private enterprises, the recovery of the whole industry will be slow in 2014, and it will be a difficult one to get rid of difficulties. marathon".