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August is not busy in the peak season
The coal market in 2010 was somewhat abnormal. The balance maintained by the coal industry in the first half of the year was broken in July, and the “dangerous season†continued until the end of August.
Qinhuangdao Coal Network data show that as of the last week of August, Qinhuangdao 5800 kcal thermal coal price is 760-770 yuan / ton, 5500 kcal calorie thermal coal price is 715-725 yuan / ton, 5000 kcal power The price of coal is 615-625 yuan/ton, and the price of 4,500 kcal is 540-550 yuan/ton, which is 5 yuan/ton.
The coal price of Qinhuangdao Port is the “wind vane†of China's coal sales market. The reporter learned that from the end of July to the present, the price of thermal coal in the Qinhuangdao port market has declined for five consecutive weeks.
The person in charge of a state-owned coal circulation enterprise told reporters that the high inventory of power plants is the direct cause of the “low season in coal pricesâ€. In order to protect the electricity consumption of the World Expo, Huadong Power Plant has generally increased its inventory. In July and August, the thermal coal inventory of major power plants averaged 20 days, far higher than the safety level of 15-18 days, and it was higher than the normal level of 7-8 days.
In addition, energy saving and emission reduction and elimination of backward production capacity since April this year are also important reasons for the decrease in coal prices.
Coal price is expected to stabilize in September
However, the person in charge of the above-mentioned state-owned coal circulation enterprises believes that the inventory factor that drives coal prices to continue to fall is gradually being eliminated, and coal prices may stabilize in September. He told reporters that the current thermal power plant has accepted bargaining, and last month, the attitude of the thermal power plant was to let us accept 705 yuan / ton, or not to sell.
In addition, the seaborne price, which is one of the leading indicators of coal prices, has bottomed out. According to data from Qinhuangdao Coal Network, at the end of August, the shipping cost of 20,000 tons to 30,000 tons, the sea freight from Qinhuangdao Port to Shanghai, Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou was 29 yuan/ton, 32 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, and the general price was 1 yuan. /Ton.
The person in charge said that the Daqin line will begin a 20-day overhaul in September, and it will be repaired for 4 hours a day. The relevant departments of China will conduct special inspections on the resource integration and technical transformation of coal mines, thus affecting coal supply. Since October, the northern user enterprises have entered the peak of winter coal storage. These factors will coincide in the short term and will push up the coal price for a short time.
Coal in October or upward price
“Last month, the coal market was not good, so the attitude of the thermal power plant was tough, let us accept the offer of 705 yuan / ton, or not. But yesterday, the attitude of the thermal power plant changed, we reported 715 / ton The price, they are considering." The head of a state-owned coal circulation enterprise said in an interview with this reporter yesterday that the inventory factor that drives coal prices to continue to fall is gradually being eliminated. Coal prices may stabilize in September and may be in October. Welcomed a short rise in the market.