Steel overcapacity truth

Abstract In the early morning of April, dozens of Audi cars carrying the elite of China's private steel industry parked in front of the Baosheng Hotel in Feicheng, Shandong. Shen Wenlong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Shagang Group, and Ding Liguo, Chairman of Delong Group, have come out. They are at the staff and journalists...
In the misty morning in early April, dozens of Audi cars carrying the elite of China's private steel industry docked in front of the Baosheng Hotel in Feicheng, Shandong. Shen Wenlong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Shagang Group, and Ding Liguo, Chairman of Delong Group, have come out. They were surrounded by staff and journalists and came to the second floor of the second member of the All-China Metallurgical Chamber of Commerce and the first council of 2015.

Often, this formulaic meeting means lengthy and boring speeches, plus a reputation of “unshirkable”. If this is what the guests expected today, they will be surprised.

"In 2015, some steel companies want to go to 'death'." Zhao Xizi, the former director of the National Metallurgical Bureau and the former honorary president of the Metallurgical Chamber of Commerce of the National Federation of Industry and Commerce, said in a middle position.

At this time, Zhang Wangyou, secretary of the county party committee of Wenxi County, who was diagonally diagonally in the first row, looked up and looked at Zhao Xizi uneasy. He knew in his heart that the "dead" object included Shanxi Haixin Iron and Steel Company within the jurisdiction of Wenxi County.

In November 2014, the largest private steel company in Shanxi Province, after four years of operation and stoppage, finally started the bankruptcy process. Haixin Steel directly and indirectly supports the livelihood of about 1/4 of Wenxi County's population, and the tax payment accounts for 60% of the county.

Affected by the global financial crisis, China's steel industry has entered a downturn since 2008. Although the crude steel output in 2014 reached a record of 823 million tons, the apparent consumption of crude steel was 740 million tons, the first decline in 30 years; steel prices It fell to the lowest level in history since 2003.

Miao Changxing, deputy director of the Industrial Policy Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, told the "Financial and Economic Weekly" reporter: From 2012 to 2014, the steel industry was basically in a state of loss. At the lowest, the steel industry had a profit margin of less than 1%. In the first quarter of this year, domestic large and medium-sized steel enterprises lost nearly 50% of their losses, and the steel industry has become one of the “most profitable” industries in China.

Debt days have become a common practice for a large number of steel companies. The members of the China Iron and Steel Association have a total debt of more than 3.2 trillion yuan in 2014, with an asset-liability ratio of 68.3%. The debt ratio of some enterprises has reached 80%. Among them, the bank loan amount is 1.3 trillion yuan, and another nearly 1.9 trillion yuan. High interest short-term loans. In the first quarter of this year, the steel industry was pumped by the bank by about 65 billion yuan. Many in the industry believe that the steel financial crisis may break out at any time.

In 2014, in addition to Haixin Iron and Steel, Sichuan Province's large steel enterprise Chuanwei Group, Heilongjiang's largest steel company Xilin Iron and Steel Group, etc., successively reported the news of bankruptcy and restructuring. In late March of this year, Pangang Group Chengdu Steel and Vanadium Co., Ltd. laid off 16,000 people in disguise.

In accordance with the policy of the “Steel Industry Transformation and Development Action Plan (2015~2017)”, which is being drafted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, on the basis of compressing 90 million tons in the previous four years, it will further compress 80 million tons of steel production capacity by 2017. Maintained at around 300, the capacity utilization rate reached 80% or more; by 2025, the top 10 steel group's crude steel production accounted for not less than 60% of the national total, forming 3 to 5 companies with strong competitiveness on a global scale. Very large steel enterprise group.

There are also environmental pressures in the process of reorganization. After the new environmental protection law and the new standards for pollutant discharge in the steel industry are officially implemented, steel enterprises must meet the new national emission standards. The environmental protection investment of steel per ton needs to increase by 13% and the operating expenses by about 200 yuan. Many industry insiders said that the new environmental protection law requirements are too high, or it will force some steel companies to "slow death."

"For the steel industry with more than 3 million people, the past three years can only be regarded as winter, and the future is the real winter." Zhao Xizi told the "Financial Weekly" reporter.

Unstoppable reins

On the night of the Feicheng meeting, Zhang Wangyou made another effort. He found Zhao Xizi and some of the participating entrepreneurs, hoping to use their strength to match Haixin Steel's restructuring as soon as possible.

Ding Liguo, chairman of Delong Group, told the reporter of Caijing National Weekly: "Unless you make a discount, you have to pull the bank together, otherwise it is difficult!"

Behind the cruel reality is the overcapacity of the steel industry. In 1996, after China surpassed Japan to become the world's largest steel producer, it has maintained rapid development. From 2000 to 2008, it was the golden age of China's metallurgical industry for 8 years.

"At that time, no matter what steel project was made, it was profitable at least a thousand yuan per ton. It was a bit of money to feel soft." Wei Guangmin, deputy general manager of Handan Iron and Steel Group, told the "Financial Weekly" reporter.

As a steelmaker, Wei Guangmin has a proud capital. In the mid-1990s, Handan Iron & Steel, known for its “grasping efficiency and reducing costs”, created a gold-plated signboard – “Industrial Science and Steel”. But then the development of things deviated from the original idea.

In the face of high profits, the “6-word Mantra” of Handan Iron & Steel was left behind by the peers, and the development of the steel industry entered a stage of near-crazy. In 2003, the total investment of the steel industry was 142.7 billion yuan, and the growth rate of fixed assets investment reached 87.2%. In the following years, the growth rate of crude steel production remained above 20%, and in 2007 it was close to 30%. Dagan quickly laid the groundwork for the crisis in the steel industry in the future.

The steel industry is capital intensive and the entry barrier is not high, but exit is difficult. As a result, the decision-making department frequently recruited the steel industry to cool down the virtual fire. According to incomplete statistics, since February 2004, relevant state departments have issued more than 20 policies to eliminate backward steel production capacity.

In particular, the Jiangsu Ironclad incident in 2004 showed the anxiety and determination of the decision-making department. At the time, Luo Bingsheng, executive vice president of China Steel Association, said that stopping the illegal and illegal investment in the steel industry, blind investment, and low-level expansion of production capacity is not only a problem of the steel industry itself, but also a major impact on China’s economic development and maintaining a reasonable investment structure. problem.

However, the enthusiasm of the steel industry has not diminished since then, and a large number of enterprises have not been approved in various names. Even insiders have described that every time the regulation of the steel industry will ushered in a new round of "carnival" in the steel industry.

Until the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, Chinese steel companies were forced to cut production significantly. In 2009, global steel production fell sharply by 21.5%. But immediately after the “4 trillion” massive stimulus policy, the steel industry once again set off a climax of investment. By 2014, China's crude steel output was 823 million tons, accounting for about half of the world.

Li Tao, chairman of Anyang Iron and Steel Group, the largest steel company in Henan Province, analyzed the reporters of “Financial Weekly”. The stimulus period has not been long for steel consumption, but a large proportion of steel consumption is the internal circulation of new and renovated steel mills. Consumption, over time, the relationship between steel consumption and production capacity is becoming less and less proportional, resulting in excess steel production capacity.

Usually the capacity utilization rate below 75% can be called overcapacity. In 2014, China's steel capacity utilization rate was only 70.69%.

But what needs to be treated differently is the overcapacity of crude steel, cast iron pipe, stainless steel profile, rebar, and special steel in China's steel products. The plate with high added value, cold rolled sheet strip, medium thick special strip steel Alloy sheets and electrical steel sheets are imported from Japan and Germany. In 2014, China imported 14.4321 million tons of steel.

Yu Yong, chairman of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, told the reporter of Caijing National Weekly that imported steel only accounts for more than one percentage of the national steel output. Most of these steel products can also be produced by Chinese enterprises, but lacking stability and weak competitiveness.

Why is the market failing?

Every time the government controls, many state-owned enterprises' production capacity declines, but the national total is rising.

The reason behind this is that private steel enterprises have developed rapidly in the past decade or so, and have grown from a three-point world in 2002 to half of the country in 2012.

Therefore, some critics have targeted the overcapacity in private enterprises and accused the latter of surpassing state-owned enterprises in efficiency by means of not invoicing and extending workers' working hours.

In this regard, the chairman of the Board of Directors of Shagang Group, Shen Wenrong, said in an interview with the reporter of “Financial Weekly” that standardized operation is also the basic norm for large-scale private enterprises. He also asked, “Why are those state-owned enterprises that are seriously depleted and insolvent fail to fail?”

Regardless of the state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, the Chinese steel industry faces a common problem - the marginal producers are difficult to exit. Typically, companies that are “tails” in the steel industry and are near the break-even line are marginal producers who act as autoregulators for steel supply and demand.

From 2003 to 2007, China's large and medium-sized steel companies had an average profit of 8.1% and a minimum of 6.5%, which meant that the regulator was operating normally. However, after 2009, “failure”, some enterprises have no profit and do not easily cut production, stop production, and even more losses increase production, not only raise the price of raw materials, but also reduce the price of steel, which makes the average profit rate of the steel industry far lower. At a reasonable level.

There are many key enterprises in some areas. For example, Anyang Iron and Steel has suffered a large loss in the past few years. Some insiders said that if Angang is a private enterprise, it may have been closed. The reason why it is still in production is to feed 25,000 on-the-job employees and 32,000 "three-product" and retirees. Only when there is cash flow in production can wages be issued. "This is the responsibility of state-owned enterprises."

Ren Hao, the chairman of the larger Shandong Iron and Steel Group, told the reporter of Caijing National Weekly: "We have nearly 100,000 employees who are eating steel rice. If the steel industry cannot make its own blood, the development of the company will not be sustainable."

"Strip Steel" has been banned

The overall overcapacity is already a consensus in the steel industry, but there is no hole in it.

In 2014, China's steel output (including duplicate materials) reached 1.13 billion tons, crude steel 820 million tons, and steel products exceeded 300 million tons. Zhao Xizi said that such a large gap indicates that in addition to the deep processing of steel, the production of “strip steel” is still very large.

“Strip steel” generally refers to counterfeit steel products. According to industry insiders, the production of strip steel is mainly concentrated in Tangshan, Hebei, Liaoyang, Liaoning, Xuzhou, Lianyungang, etc. Xinjiang is “spreading everywhere”. However, due to the strong concealment and the complex interest chain, the accurate yield of the strip steel is still unknown.

Li Shubin, executive vice president and secretary general of China Waste Steel Application Association, told the reporter of Caijing National Weekly that there are about 80 million tons of production capacity of strip steel in China. If this capacity is included, China's steel capacity utilization rate It is only 66.13%, which is a serious excess.

More critically, counterfeit steel has caused the phenomenon of “bad money driving out good money”. In 2014, Henan Province sold 8 million tons of Angang brand rebar, but Angang's own rebar production was only 1.5 million tons. Pretending to be the brand of the strip steel, the price per ton is 200-300 yuan cheaper than the original.

In November 2014, under the report of Angang, Henan Province's industrial and commercial, quality inspection and other departments had rectified the counterfeit and shoddy steel, but eventually only seized some of the counterfeit steel products. After some time, counterfeit and shoddy products returned to the market.

Chi Jingdong, vice president of China Steel Association, told the reporter of Caijing National Weekly that this phenomenon is mainly due to the fact that some local government departments have not yet created a market environment that is fair enough, and law enforcement is not fair. For example, 304 steel companies that were included in the list of regulated conditions by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have been repeatedly inspected, but more than 200 companies outside the list are rarely managed. The enterprises outside the list are out of control - the quality of the products is not up to standard, and the environmental protection is seriously not up to standard. They also sell products in the market, which ultimately drastically lowers product prices, causing large losses in the entire industry.

According to industry insiders, in March 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission organized relevant departments and associations to discuss how to deal with the problem of strip steel, but when they came to the door, they found that the "door" did not know where.

In fact, some local steel companies have changed their minds now, and even the name of the company does not contain the word steel. Moreover, if the scrap material is pure, some steel strip companies can produce steel that meets the standards. Therefore, it is difficult to find out the traces of ordinary inspection methods, which is also an important reason for the repeated prohibition of the strip steel.

Chi Jingdong believes that the most important thing to do in the management of local steel is to strengthen the government's law enforcement capabilities. Regardless of the industrial and commercial, quality supervision or environmental protection departments, there are law enforcement forces all over counties, townships and towns. Which enterprises belong to the local strip steel enterprises, these local law enforcement departments know best, so it is necessary to see the determination of the government departments to get rid of the strip steel. And execution.

However, in reality, as the industrial and commercial departments enforce the law at the market, the quality supervision department supervises the production plants, and the law enforcement chain is often not smooth. It should be opened as soon as possible to form a joint law enforcement mechanism.

One of the tricks for the steel and steel companies to hide in the ground is to check the power consumption. According to statistics, the electricity consumption of the steel industry accounts for 1/10 of the country's total power generation. According to industry insiders, as long as they are keeping an eye on the power consumption of enterprises, those steel and steel enterprises will definitely not be able to shape.

The implementation of business tax reform VAT is also a good way to control the local strip steel. Li Shubin said that if the "reform of the camp" is implemented in the steel industry, it will be forced to invoice the strip to avoid tax evasion and tax evasion, thereby greatly reducing the profit margin of the strip steel and making the counterfeit and shoddy meaningless.

He also suggested that the relevant state departments can resume the preferential tax policy for scrap steel, so that the formal scrap steel recycling enterprises are no longer in a disadvantaged position and form an effective blow to the production of strip steel.

It’s hard to get away from melee

No one is uncomfortable in the crowded mid- to low-end market. But getting out is not easy.

"If you don't change and die, you can't find death, steel companies are in such awkward situation." Li Yutian, chairman of Henan Jiyuan Iron and Steel, told the "Financial Weekly" reporter.

This 57-year-old steel company was restructured into a private enterprise in 2001, and since 2004, it has started the product upgrade process of “Pu-Yuan-Yu-Yi-Yu-Yu---” , to high-quality industrial steel, and then to special steel such as automotive steel, bearing steel.

Jiyuan Steel wants to avoid fierce competition in the field of Pudong Steel and increase its market share in medium and high-end steel. However, first-class equipment can be solved by investment, but the technical level and management level are difficult to improve in the short term. In the case that the product quality cannot be relatively stable, it is inevitable that the price will not be sold.

Many industry insiders said that the first-class equipment, second-rate products, and third-rate prices are the problems faced by most steel companies.

In addition to Jiyuan Steel, many large steel companies in China have also embarked on the road of transformation and upgrading, and gradually formed their own fist products. For example, Baosteel has a unique position in automotive sheet metal. WISCO and Shougang occupy a large market share in the construction of medium-thickness plates. Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. are mainly hot and cold-rolled plates, while Panzhihua Steel focuses on heavy-duty steel. produce.

However, most steel products have long product lines and a wide variety of products. It is inevitable that homogenization competition will not be able to get rid of the price war.

Wang Xinjiang, deputy general manager of Anyang Steel, told the reporter of Caijing National Weekly that the steel for natural gas pipelines belongs to special varieties of steel. Originally, domestic enterprises could not produce them. Therefore, all the lines of the West-East Gas Pipeline use imported pipeline steel. When it arrived at the construction of the second line of the West-East Gas Pipeline, Angang got a contract of 20,000 tons. At that time, the price of tons of steel was 8,150 yuan and the profit was about 1,000 yuan/ton. However, when the construction of the third line of the West-East Gas Pipeline was carried out, the steel enterprises swarmed up and competed to cut prices. The final price dropped to 3,700 yuan per ton. Many enterprises got orders, but whoever supplied them lost money.

A more typical case is stainless steel. China's stainless steel production base was mainly Taiyuan Steel in the early stage, with considerable benefits. However, with the rapid follow-up of other steel companies, by 2012, the capacity utilization rate of stainless steel has dropped to 70%, which is more than the average capacity utilization rate of the entire steel industry. low.

There are also successful cases. Baosteel once cooperated with an automobile company and found that the steel it supplied did not have the high rate of steel production of Nippon Steel. After repeated tests, it did not find quality problems. Later, it was discovered that the mold used by the car company was designed by Nippon Steel, which is naturally more suitable for Nippon Steel. After learning this lesson, Baosteel cooperated with the car companies to design and build a specific mold suitable for Baosteel's steel quality, achieving a higher yield and setting a threshold for competitors.

Chi Jingdong said that the transformation of steel enterprises should be from scale-based to quality and service orientation, ensuring stable quality and personalized service.

However, he also believes that from the current industry as a whole, the transformation of the special steel, perhaps only a few companies can do, most steel companies in the technical, management, talent reserves and other aspects can not be temporarily.

Even Yu Yongdu, chairman of Hebei Iron and Steel, the country's largest steel group, said: "In the short term, large steel groups cannot expect a few high-end products to feed."

New slimming plan

At a time when the industry as a whole is in trouble and enterprises are "self-helping", the hands of the state control will soon pay off again.

Luo Tiejun, deputy director of the Raw Materials Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, told the reporter of Caijing National Weekly that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology intends to officially launch the "Steel Industry Transformation and Development Action Plan (2015~2017)" by the end of June this year. The goal is to recompress 8000 in these three years. 10,000 tons of steel production capacity.

Prior to 2010-2014, China's total elimination of steelmaking capacity of 90 million tons, to some extent eased the domestic overcapacity contradiction. In particular, in 2014, 31 million tons of backward production capacity were eliminated, and the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” mission was completed ahead of schedule.

In addition to the forthcoming action plan, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is also preparing the “13th Five-Year Plan” for the steel industry, and has begun to revise the “Steel Industry Development Policy” issued by the National Development and Reform Commission 10 years ago, which will formulate longer-term policy objectives.

The problem is that at the end of 2013, the domestic production capacity of blast furnaces below 400 cubic meters has dropped to 4.7%, and the capacity of converters below 30 tons is only 0.9%. Simply put, the basics that can be eliminated have been eliminated, and the rest are not eliminated, especially involving a large number of staff placement issues.

In addition, many steel companies have formed a mutual guarantee situation, and banks are also reluctant to be eliminated by steel companies, which will further increase the difficulty of regulation.

Zhao Xizi analyzed that in the future, enterprises with a capacity of 1 million tons/year or less may be reduced, and an estimated capacity of 75 million tons is expected. In addition, large-scale steel enterprises such as Shanxi Haixin and Sichuan Chuanwei, which have fallen into crisis due to capital chain breaks, are expected to have a production capacity of 15 million tons, and new tasks may be completed.

The scale is the main standard for previous regulation. Miao Changxing, deputy director of the Industrial Policy Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, introduced the “Financial and Economic Weekly”, and in the future, it will establish a comprehensive elimination system based on environmental protection, energy consumption, quality and safety, and connect the implementation system. It is an important shift in the regulatory standards, and work is underway and a special document may be formed.

Li Xinchuang, president of the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, told the "Financial Weekly" that the practice of setting specific control figures is of little significance. Over the years, there have been lists of enterprises that have been eliminated, but there is a lot of water. "The future elimination should be eliminated by the market. ."

Even Zhao Xizi, who believes that the new slimming plan is expected to be completed, expressed concern. In his view, the prospects for the steel industry are still not optimistic after completing new tasks in 2017.

According to the development law of developed countries and large steel producing countries, the per capita steel production will reach the peak platform when it reaches 600 kg, and it will enter the severe excess stage after 5 to 10 years. China reached its peak in 2013, and Zhao Xizi believes that the "13th Five-Year Plan" period will be the real "cold winter" of China's steel industry.

"Don't think that steel is cyclical in winter. If you bite your teeth, it will be wrong." Zhao Xizi said that even if it is difficult, "transformation and upgrading is the only way to survive and develop in the future."

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