Export contribution to GDP declines China's focus on transformation

After the Spring Festival, the annual "two sessions" of China will be on the scene. In 2009, the super “V” reversal of the Chinese economy in the shadow of the global crisis will attract the attention of the “two sessions” in China’s domestic political life.
Based on past experience, this year's China's "two sessions" will review and summarize the successful implementation of GDP "guarantee eight" consensus last year, boost confidence, and declare the deployment of 2010 development goals and policy paths.
More importantly, China will not be immersed in the glory of the world's largest exporter and the world's second largest economy, and whether it will continue to be faster in the next decade or even decades. The transformational action of growth rate has gradually advanced and will become the focus of public opinion during the "two sessions."
"Expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, adjusting income, and re-innovation", unprecedented determination, can be clearly seen from the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year or the intensive statement of China's top leaders before the Spring Festival.
Statistics show that China’s exports contributed 3.9 percentage points to GDP in 2009. The negative growth of exports and even double-digit declines are the first in recent decades, and this transcript is in the context of near-excessive policy support. Acquired.
As China's economic aggregates continue to grow, the role of overseas markets in driving economic growth is bound to become smaller and smaller. At the same time, the cost of China's labor force and other factors continues to rise. The changes in consumption and production patterns caused by the crisis in the developed economies of the United States and Europe, as well as the increasing trade frictions, are all predicting that China is approaching the ceiling of the head, and that the export has been eagerly evolving. Will never return.
In 2009, when exports were largely withdrawn due to sluggish external demand, investment has undoubtedly become the number one contributor to China's economic growth and will continue to play an important role this year. But the key point is that the unsustainable and marginal benefit diminishing laws of high-intensity investment on the economy are doomed to be a temporary disaster rather than a long-term solution.
As the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee and President Hu Jintao said in a speech at the Central Party School earlier this month, the impact of the international financial crisis on the Chinese economy is ostensibly an impact on the rate of economic growth, but in fact it is an impact on the way of economic development. Among the more than 50 "accelerated" statements, China is more able to appreciate China's urgent desire for economic transformation.
The foundation of the transformation lies in solving the problem of insufficient consumption that has plagued the Chinese economy for many years, and stimulating the potential internal driving force of China's economic growth. By accelerating the pace of rural urbanization, adjusting the national income distribution, improving the social security mechanism, and increasing the proportion of the service industry in the three industries. By means of other means, China is truly a market with 1.3 billion people, more than the combined population of the United States, Europe and Japan.
After 30 years of reform and opening up, China's per capita GDP exceeded US$3,000 in 2008. From the historical experience of developed countries, the consumption demand across this threshold country will increase significantly. In response to the crisis in 2009, the sudden emergence of consumer demand contributed 4.6 percentage points to China's economic growth, a record high of nearly a decade.
For export and investment, the other two carriages that drive GDP growth are equally important and urgent.
How to change the structure of export products, reverse the low-end image of "Made in China" overseas, and become the only way for China to move from a big trading country to a trading power. For a long time, most of China's export commodities have only recorded the most meager profit in the industrial chain. Regardless of the waste and harm caused by resources and the environment, the future space for winning the extensive development mode will also become increasingly important. cramped.
In the investment field, China must not only be wary of the risk of overheating caused by excessive investment, but also promote monopoly industry reforms, focus on improving investment efficiency, speed up the opening of domestic industries, especially service industries, and guide private capital to industry and encourage private entrepreneurship. Effectively break the "glass door" and "spring door" phenomenon to curb the so-called "national advancement and retreat" situation caused by excessive investment concentration.
Needless to say, if the Chinese economy wants to achieve dual innovation in science and technology and system, it is far from the day and night to complete the transformation. To change the mode of development, in the final analysis, it is necessary to launch a new round of reforms involving various aspects. The degree of difficulty can be imagined, but it is more worthy of expectation.

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