Domestic oil prices may "slam down"

Domestic oil prices may "slam down" Recently, international oil prices have come out of unilateral plunge prices. The price of Brent crude oil** fell below the US$100 mark per barrel for the first time since last July, and the price of US crude oil fell below the US$90 mark per barrel. As of April 18, Brent recently closed at 99.13 U.S. dollars/barrel, down by 5.14 U.S. dollars or 4.93 percent from the previous week; and by the close of the month, the U.S. dollar closed at 87.73 U.S. dollars/barrel, down by 5.78 U.S. dollars or 6.18 from the previous week. %.

Yongan believes that there are four reasons for this round of international oil price slump: First, the global oil demand growth was dragged down by the sluggish economy, but supply has continued to climb with the arrival of North American shale gas. Second, market concerns The Fed may withdraw from the quantitative easing monetary policy ahead of schedule. Third, the U.S. stock market falls behind and forms one of the main factors that suppress international oil prices. Fourth, the recent ** actively shorts international oil prices.

Analysts believe that the demand for oil in the first half of the year is more pessimistic and it is expected that the fundamentals will remain weak and drag on oil prices. In the short term, the Brent crude oil price may fall to the support level of $90/barrel, and then there may be low-priced funds entering the market to support the rebound in oil prices. From the whole year, it is expected that the supply and demand of crude oil will improve in the second half of the year.

Domestic oil prices may "slam down"

On March 27 this year, the domestic refined oil market ushered in the first downward adjustment this year, and the new pricing mechanism was also introduced. According to the new mechanism, April 10 is the first price adjustment day after the new mechanism is operational, but it has not been adjusted because domestic refined oil price should be adjusted below 50 yuan per ton, and the unadjusted amount will be added or offset during the next price adjustment.

Affected by the slump in international oil prices, the rate of change in the average price of crude oil monitored by various market institutions has fallen in successive days. The data released by the Xinhua News Agency's oil price system on April 19 showed that the change rate of the average price of a basket of crude oil on April 18 was -5.48%, which was a further drop of 0.38 percentage point from the previous day.

The industry generally believes that due to the recent large decline in international oil prices, the price adjustment will not fail again, the price adjustment window will be opened around April 25, the price adjustment is likely to exceed 400 yuan / ton, thus becoming the highest amplitude modulation this year .

“The price adjustment will not be lower than RMB 300/t, and pessimists even think that it may exceed RMB 500/t. If the recent international crude oil prices have not been substantially turned over, it is expected that when the price adjustment window opens, the crude oil change rate will exceed -7%, plus The price of the last unadjusted price has been added to this price adjustment, and this time the price adjustment rate is the highest in the year, said Treasurer Zhang, a Treasure Island analyst.

Affected by the expected downward adjustment in oil prices, the current domestic refined oil market is weak, with gasoline and diesel prices continuing to decline. The data of 26 domestic cities monitored by Zhongyu Information on April 19th showed that the average price of 93# gasoline of China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec was RMB 9302/ton, which was RMB 7/ton lower than the previous day; The price was RMB 8003/ton, which was RMB 28/ton lower than the previous day. The difference between the average sale price of China Sanko Gasoline and the average retail sale price was RMB 602/ton and RMB 529/ton respectively.

“Because of the close to the end of the month, the merchants have a strong mindset, so there will inevitably be price cuts at the end of the month. In addition, the global economy will not be able to provide good news soon. The domestic industries are sluggish and the demand for refined oil products is still hard to rise rapidly. As the short-selling of various parties is still relatively concentrated, the short-term domestic gasoline and diesel oil market will continue to maintain a steady downward trend, said Ma Yan, an analyst at Zhongyu Information.

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