Daily Comment: The wait-and-see mood is heavier, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate.

Today's hot spot

Today, black commodity futures rose overall, with raw material contracts rising less, and finished product contracts leading the way, with rebar main contracts rising sharply. The snails broke through the high point of the previous shocks in one fell swoop, and from the technical indicators, there is still an impulsive momentum in the short term. In terms of spot, the spot prices of today's varieties are rising and falling, the rebar is the strongest, and the plate is the weakest. From the fundamental situation, although the demand in the off-season is not warm, the output expansion rate is slower, the inventory continues to decline, the market cost factor is superimposed, and the price resistance is better. The focus of the market is on the international trade situation and the resumption of production in the later period. Therefore, the short-term wait-and-see attitude is heavier. It is expected that domestic steel prices will fluctuate.

Macro hotspot

1, [domestic commodity futures mostly closed up, black system rose in the first place] asphalt closed up 2.1%, Zheng cotton, thread, apple, Shanghai copper, coke, hot coil, rubber, eggs, cotton yarn, Shanghai zinc, rose more than 1% Iron ore, manganese silicon, coking coal, Shanghai tin, Shanghai aluminum, rapeseed, glass, corn, plastic, Shanghai silver, Zheng coal, Zheng oil, Zheng alcohol, soybean meal, etc. closed up. Palm, white sugar, ferrosilicon, rapeseed meal, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai lead and so on closed down.

2, [Shanghai stock index re-station on the 2800-point mark, the concept of individual stocks is active]

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,815.51 points, up 2.47%, the biggest one-day gain in more than 25 months, with a turnover of 135.7 billion yuan.

The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9160.62 points, up 2.80%, with a turnover of 190.3 billion yuan.

The GEM closed at 1581.93 points, up 2.64%, with a turnover of 66.5 billion yuan.

3. Wang Xin, Director of the Central Bank's Monetary and Gold Banking Bureau: If the digital currency plays a monetary function, it needs to be restrained and attacked. The central bank must firmly grasp the right to issue currency and avoid the challenge of the status of legal currency, because it may be economic and financial. The society has a potentially huge negative impact. At present, there may be phenomena such as illegal fund-raising, fraud, and excessive speculation under the banner of “digital currency”. If some digital currencies increasingly play the role of money, they need to be restrained and attacked. Of course, the central bank and financial regulatory authorities need to pay close attention to the development of financial technology, improve supervision and technology, and fully mobilize social forces to develop central bank digital currency.

4. The Law Enforcement Inspection Team of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress: It is recommended to steadily promote the work of “coal to gas” and “coal to electricity”. The report of the Law Enforcement Inspection Group of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on the implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Law was submitted to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on the 9th. The meeting reviewed, the report recommended, vigorously promote the management of loose coal, to ensure the clean winter heating in the northern region, focus on local conditions, and take measures to promote the "coal to gas" and "coal to electricity" work.

Market today

Raw material

[Domestic mine] Some market prices of domestically produced main producing areas fell slightly. The price of the Xingxing Bureau in North China fell 2 yuan/ton, the price of Daixian County fell 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Huadong Qiuqiu fell 2 yuan/ton. Specifically, North China-Tangshan 66% dry-based tax-included cash factory 640-650 yuan / ton, Qianxi 66% dry-based tax-included cash out 630-640 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 645-655 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 635-645 yuan / ton.

[Imported mines] The price of imported minerals traders in the morning was basically the same as that of last Friday. The mainstream price of PB powder in Shandong port was 450-455 yuan/ton, less than 445 yuan/ton. The willingness to trade was not strong; the mainstream price in Tangshan was 460 yuan/ton. , less than 450 yuan / ton is not willing to deal. The rising trend of steel market prices has boosted traders, and there has been no phenomenon of low-priced goods. Steel mills have general enquiries, but the inquiry is generally low, it is difficult to reach the psychological price of traders. In the afternoon, iron ore 1809 fluctuated and the steel mills got better.

[Imported mines] The price of imported minerals traders in the morning was basically the same as that of last Friday. The mainstream price of PB powder in Shandong port was 450-455 yuan/ton, less than 445 yuan/ton. The willingness to trade was not strong; the mainstream price in Tangshan was 460 yuan/ton. , less than 450 yuan / ton is not willing to deal. The rising trend of steel market prices has boosted traders, and there has been no phenomenon of low-priced goods. Steel mills have general enquiries, but the inquiry is generally low, it is difficult to reach the psychological price of traders. In the afternoon, iron ore 1809 fluctuated and the steel mills got better.

Steel spot

Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices are adjusted in a narrow range. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,112 yuan/ton, which was 2 yuan/ton higher than that of the previous trading day, with South China, Central China and North China rebounding slightly; the southwest region was weak; the northeast and northwest regions were stable. Mainly; only the price performance of East China is different. Today, the snails opened higher and higher, the spot market traded significantly warmer, the end customer purchases were positive, and the prices in some regions showed a second adjustment, but the market performance after adjustment was normal. At present, due to the rise in futures, the market price and price have risen. However, the overall poor demand in the traditional off-season is still relatively obvious. The good demand performance is not sustainable, and the business mentality is more cautious. On the whole, it is expected that the market price will be in a strong and volatile situation tomorrow.

Hot-rolled coils: Today's 24 major cities in the country have a narrow range of hot-rolling prices. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils is 4,285 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the national average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils. 4225 yuan / ton, down 4 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. Today, the futures market rose slightly, the market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and merchants' offers were mixed, but the range was limited. At present, the market demand is generally general, and the transaction volume has not increased significantly. However, the market inventory resources are relatively small, coupled with the support of cost, the merchants have a strong willingness to price. In addition, today's billet market price rose by 20 yuan / ton, the current price of carbon billet is 3,630 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.

Plate: Today, the domestic plate market price fell slightly. The average price of 20mm plate in 23 major cities nationwide was 4343 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. At present, the spot demand in the market is relatively weak. Even if the price is adjusted back, the actual transaction is still very few, so the operation of the business is to maintain the shipment. In the afternoon, as the electronic disk warmed up and the billet price increased slightly, the spot price of the merchant gradually turned to wait and see. It is expected that the domestic plate market price will weaken and run tomorrow.

Cold rolling: Today's national cold rolling prices fell slightly. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4,700 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day, the price fell by 3 yuan / ton. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4640 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm Angang steel coil offer 4680 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4,500 yuan / ton. Market: On Monday, the trend of black commodity futures was stronger overall, and the volume of transactions in individual markets increased significantly. Among them, in Shanghai, the volume of transactions today was 63.14% higher than that of last Friday. However, from the spot transaction in the morning, the merchant's offer is generally stable. On the Other hand, since the 7 merchants ordered the steel mills to discount the monthly payment, the willingness to drop the price is not strong. For the market outlook, the market mentality is generally dominated by the wait-and-see. The cold rolling price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range.

Profiles: Today's domestic steel market prices are weak and consolidating. Due to the strong market sentiment, the overall price is still weak. Specifically, the Tangshan steel plate was stable in the early morning, and the overall afternoon transaction was general. In early trading, Tangshan Pufang billet led by 10 yuan/ton, steel futures fluctuated at a high level, both were bullish, boosting the sentiment of the steel market, and the steel market became stronger. As a result, some manufacturers' intraday prices rose, and the intraday steel bill continued to rise. 10 yuan / ton, steel products continue to rise with the billet 10-20 yuan / ton, the volume of steel in the afternoon increased significantly. The spot resources in the East China market are slowly digested, and the overall market mentality is empty, and operations are maintained to facilitate shipments. As the futures and billets improved, the price of the bottom resources gradually stabilized. The prices of profiles in South China market remained stable. Due to the poor market shipments on weekends, the business mentality remained cautious. Therefore, despite the strong steel, the market price is difficult to rise. However, driven by the rise of steel and steel billets, the market shipments in the afternoon improved slightly. On the whole, the current stage of the market is mainly expected to be relatively bearish, with the exception of a few low-cost resources or a callback, most regions may remain consolidating and running.

Steel pipe: Domestic pipe prices fell slightly today. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 4337 yuan/ton, which is 7 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day; the average price of galvanized pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 5038 yuan/ton, which is lower than the previous trading day. 12 yuan / ton; seamless pipe 108 * 405mm national average price of 5,236 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. In terms of pipe factory, Tianjin Youfa, Juncheng and Lida ex-factory prices were raised by RMB 20/ton, and Linyi’s mainstream seamless pipe factory was offered at RMB 4,750/ton. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, market transactions have become better, traders are still more cautious in operation, and there is no intention to replenish goods in the short term. In terms of seamless pipes, market transactions are still poor, and traders are moving faster and faster, maintaining low stocks. It is expected that the market price of steel pipe will continue to fluctuate and adjust tomorrow.

Futures: Today, domestic black commodity futures rebounded across the board, with finished materials leading the market and capital inflows. Specifically: Today, the A-share market rebounded sharply, and the phased release of macro-systemic risks caused the risk aversion of the funds to cool down. Under the premise of the strong spot market, the disk performance was hot, and the thread opened higher and higher in the early morning. On the other hand, some steel mills in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province have passed the acceptance test, and the blast furnace has started. It is expected to be put into the market in mid-July. In the short term, with the mismatch of supply and demand in the future, the demand in the off-season will remain strong, and the base difference will remain large. In the case of the finished product, the finished product is still easy to rise and fall. Taking the snail as an example, the daily k-line will be long under the shadow of the Yangtou line, and the end of the station will be on the 3830 area, breaking through the shock zone. In the later stage, it is expected to go up to the 3900 area. The above suggestions, the snail bargains are long, and the rolling operation is the main.

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