The furniture industry will be overwhelmed by rents

The fourth quarter of each year is a traditional peak season for the furniture industry, but this year's situation is a bit abnormal.

The slowdown of domestic economic growth and the continued control of real estate have become the main reasons. The sluggish overseas market and the high rents of stores have become the "three straws" that crush the profits of the furniture industry.

Even leading companies can hardly survive the harsh winter. The positioning of furniture products in the mid-to-high-end Meike (600337.SH) has a certain position in the domestic furniture industry from manufacturing to sales.

However, since the first half of this year, corporate performance has suffered a sharp turnaround.

Due to the impact of the macroeconomic environment, the furniture export business has declined and the number of stores has increased. The first half of the company's total profit, net profit, earnings per share, net cash flow and other important indicators have shown a year-on-year decline of more than 30% or more . In the third quarter of this year, the company's net profit was -40.83 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 197.33%.

To make matters worse, due to the significant decline in the annual export business and the termination of the option incentive plan, the share payment expenses of the waiting period (2012 ~ 2014) were all confirmed in this year. Meike shares the company ’s full-year net profit this year. Will be more than 50% lower than the same period of last year,

The situation of Dynasty Furniture (01198.HK) is more typical. The company is currently one of the largest domestic manufacturers of panel and solid wood furniture. In the first half of this year, the sales of the group's franchised stores and self-operated stores declined.

Due to the impact of the weak retail industry and real estate regulation, the group's operating income dropped by 30% to HK $ 498 million in the same period, gross profit fell by 32.6% to HK $ 150 million (2011: HK $ 224 million), and net profit fell by 89%.

However, the Group is still full of hope for the last quarter of the year. It is expected that revenue will be generated in the second half of this year and the first half of next year, and the inventory level is expected to gradually decline in the second half of this year.

In the past two years, Dynasty furniture has planned to build new production facilities in Wuqing District of Tianjin City and Nanchang City of Jiangxi Province. The first phase of Tianjin facilities is expected to start operations in the fourth quarter of 2012, but based on the unfavorable market environment, the Group will reduce Tianjin The initial output of the facility also postponed the main expenses of the Nanchang facility.

Similar to the dynasty furniture, Zhongfu Industrial (000592.SZ), which also belongs to the furniture sector in the mainland, also warned in the semi-annual performance announcement previously issued that the expected loss in 2012 was between -219% and -247%.

Similarly, for Red Star Macalline, which ranks first in home furnishing distribution enterprises in China, the situation is not so good. In order to supplement the operating needs of its subsidiaries, return bank loans and interest, etc., Red Star Macalline issued bills twice in a row within 8 and 9 months, raising a total of 1.5 billion yuan to "quench thirst."

An industry analyst also pointed out that the rising cost of the furniture industry is not only caused by raw materials, but the cost of sales is also a "big head."

The main reason for the high cost of sales is the store rent. A brand dealer told reporters from the First Financial Daily that about 60% to 70% of dealers are in a loss due to the pressure of high rents, especially in home stores in first-tier cities.

A person from a Guangdong sanitary ware company once told reporters that rents for home stores have increased by an average of 3% per year over the past two to three years. It is very common for rents to account for about half or more of operating costs, such as 50% rent and 10% transportation and distribution. , Installation costs, 5% of staff salaries and commissions, not including taxes, finance, management and other expenses, that is to say, the gross profit must be at least 65% to ensure that no money is lost.

Such a high gross profit is almost impossible for small and medium-sized brands, especially in the economic environment. In the end, merchants can only spread rents to commodities through price increases, but in this way, the prices of their goods will only become increasingly uncompetitive, so that sales are difficult to meet expectations, and in such an economic cycle, the pair are in For the merchants, it seems to be an unsolvable problem.

In September 2012, it was destined to be an eventful season for home building materials stores. After Home Depot, the second largest retailer and building materials giant in the United States, closed all its stores in China, B & Q, a large international decoration and building materials retail group, was also sued in court for arrears of payment for goods from suppliers. Not only are foreign-funded enterprises such as Home Depot and B & Q, but the home furnishing materials store life is also not easy, and news of closing stores is common.

Defeated by water and soil

In fact, in 2009, Home Depot started to close its stores in China. As of September 2012, all of its stores in China have been closed. Although Home Depot said, it only made major strategic adjustments to focus on the development of professional retail stores and online sales, and did not withdraw from the Chinese market. But the previous statement that "the correct profit model has not been found in China" has already hinted at the collapse of Home Depot.

The analysis believes that the lack of a localized operating model for foreign-invested home building materials stores has made their development in the Chinese market face bottlenecks. Taking Home Depot as an example, after entering the Chinese market, it has always maintained its self-selected model in foreign supermarkets. The cost of labor in Europe and America is high, and most families will choose their own decoration, that is, DIY, and enjoy the happiness. However, Chinese consumers have always hired workers to decorate their homes. Few people will go home and assemble themselves like American consumers do. Since there is no do-it-yourself habit in home decoration, the DIY model is obviously not suitable for local consumption.

Although B & Q tried localization after entering China, the effect was not good. When B & Q first entered the Chinese market, it was also a DIY model. Later, it integrated the decoration business to provide support for people who have no experience in construction and decoration from drawings, material selection to construction. The establishment of "B & Q Decoration Design Center" aims to use a branded decoration center Drive sales at the store. However, B & Q's performance is hardly optimistic.

B & Q entered the Chinese market in 1999. Since 2006, B & Q has closed more than 20 stores due to poor performance, and the remaining stores have also shrunk in size. The analysis believes that in addition to the unacceptable business model, the high price is another reason why consumers are discouraged.

Local expansion dilemma

China's home furnishing stores, such as Red Star Macalline and Actual Home, have begun to expand violently. Blind expansion, coupled with the slowdown in economic growth in recent years and the impact of real estate control policies, local furniture and building materials stores are also facing development difficulties.

Taking Red Star Macalline as an example, some stores had to close their doors due to poor business and tenants who were unable to make a profit. In early August, Red Star Macalline Guangzhou Pazhou Store closed early; at the end of August, the Nanjing Olympic Red Star Store was officially withdrawn; in early September, the number of merchants at Changshu Red Star Macalline dropped sharply.

In addition, Jimei Home Furnishing, which mainly focuses on the Beijing market, has lost its merchants in its two stores in Tianjin and Beijing. Although Jimei maintains its operations, it still "closes stores" for some venues. In addition, Jimei also closed building materials stores in Beijing, Shuitun, Tianjin and Xiamen.

The industry prosperity index released recently by the China Building Materials Circulation Association shows that the main products, cement, glass, ceramics and building materials and home furnishing markets, have all fallen into a trough. From January to June 2012, the sales value of enterprises above designated size in the building materials industry nationwide was 2.5 trillion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 25.2 percentage points. Industrial added value increased by 12.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 8.4 percentage points. 140.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%; the total sales of building materials and home furnishing stores above the national scale totaled 553.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.66%, and the growth rate declined for the first time in the past five years.

Industry insiders pointed out that the performance of the building materials and home furnishing industry is weak, real estate regulation is the main reason, and the impact of e-commerce on traditional home furnishing stores cannot be ignored. Statistics show that the turnover of Taobao's home furnishing industry in 2011 increased by 130% year-on-year, and continued to maintain rapid growth in 2012. It is expected that the annual turnover of home products of e-commerce platforms such as Taobao and Tmall in 2012 will reach 60 billion yuan.

The analysis pointed out that the withdrawal of foreign-funded enterprises and the closure of local stores will undoubtedly cool down the market and also be conducive to the integration and healthy development of the industry. However, despite the chill in the home building materials industry, recently, spurred by infrastructure investment news, the shares of listed companies in cement and building materials began to rebound, with the cement industry leading the way.

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